- HOUSTON, TX– Dr. Strange? No. Season Strange? Yes. This NCAAM season has been one of the wildest we’ve ever seen. Looking outside of the field of play, we’ve never seen an NCAA president be relieved of his duties right before the largest money-making event for the organization. Yes, March Madness, not the College Football Playoff is the biggest event for the NCAA. Without the rights to any bowl games or the CFP National Championship, March Madness accounts for 85% of the NCAA’s $1.16 Billion revenue. On Wednesday, Charlie Baker took over as acting president of the NCAA and will get to watch his organization pump out one of the best tournaments the sport has ever seen. Organizational changes aside, the true madness happens on the court and March 14th cannot come soon enough.
Starting from the beginning of this season, nothing has been what it appeared to be. The preseason #1 showed to be far from it, as UNC is walking a razor thin line to even make the tournament. Thanks to a massive Quad-1 win last week against Virginia, they have a chance, but this season has not been kind to the team who had National Championship hopes after making it last year. In fact, the number 1 spot has been up for grabs all year, with 4 different teams holding the spot. While that may not seem like a lot, no team has been able to assert their dominance this year, with the longest time any one team held the position being 4 weeks. In total, there have been 6 changes to the first-place team and in a 17-week season, that is a lot of turnover at the top. This is not to say that these teams aren’t good, but rather they lack the dominance that sets them apart in a league of their own heading into the tournament.
In terms of being the top dog, Purdue has led the longest of any other teams this year. It may sound cliché, but Purdue just plays good all-around ball. They can play good, team offense and get stops when need be, but where they make their mark is on the glass. Thanks in large part (no pun intended) to 7’4 Zach Edey, they are grabbing 11 more rebounds a game than their opponent, leading to second chance points for themselves and limiting those points for their opponent. This margin is the highest in college basketball, a sport where controlling the glass is of the upmost importance. This is why Purdue has been the most consistent team in the country this year and is the “favorite” to win it all.
Houston, the team with the 2nd longest time at the #1 spot this year, is a master in the art of defense. The Cougars lead the country in defensive points per game, only giving up a mere 55.9 points per game. Night in and night out this team comes in knowing that if they score just 60 points, they have a good chance to win. Yes, Houston plays in the AAC where the talent level isn’t the same as the power 5 conference’s, but the tenacity in which they play with is unparalleled across the sport. The time old adage is that Defense Wins Championships; if that statement is true, then Houston should cruise to the title game.
One thing we know for certain in March Madness, is that nothing is certain. As great as the top teams have been this year, they aren’t without flaw. Purdue lacks the athleticism to run and gun with teams; if the game becomes a track meet full of fast breaks, they cannot hang. Houston lacks offensive firepower, if they run into a team that can handle their defense and get to the basket often, I’m not sure if their offense can keep up. Alabama, who hasn’t been mentioned yet, is a great team who can score at will. Their problem will be their mental fortitude and if they can handle all the attention and scrutiny the team is receiving in the wake of the capital murder investigation involving former teammate Darius Miles and current star Brandon Miller.
With the doubts at the top of the class, it is a given that this year’s tournament will be one of the most tumultuous we’ve seen in recent memory. Teams ranked 4-25 are just as good as the top of the field on any given night; each with their own strengths and weaknesses that make them unique. In a tournament where the draw is random and the time to prepare is limited, there are endless possibilities to who might be crowned NCAA champion by the time March Madness is concluded. Some of the dark horse areas to look?
- Big 12: Every team from the Big 12, with the exception of Oklahoma, is going to make the tournament. None of these teams has been ranked #1 this season, but that is just because the competition in conference has been so intense. Kansas, Baylor, Texas and Kansas State all have exciting teams who know how to turn it on. If they were in separate conferences, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them all be conference champions. The Big 12 is deep and the level of competition within has made every team heading to the tournament hungry; I could easily see one of these teams going on a run.
- Big East: Gritty is how I would describe the way these teams play. Each moment on the court is fought for, there are no easy buckets or time taken off. With hard pressing defense and set offense’s, the Big East teams rely on smart play to beat their opponent and it’s working. 5 teams are projected to make the tournament from this and of that group, I easily see 2 of them having an easy path to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond. Marquette and Xavier not only have the smart play like the rest of the Big East, but they also have the offensive firepower to match up with any team they run into. Look for this conference to make some noise come tourney time.
- Mid-Major: There’s always one Cinderella who goes dancing in March, it’s why the tournament is so special. This year is no exception, as there are plenty of high-flying teams that you wouldn’t want to catch on a bad night. Oral Roberts returns a veteran-heavy team, a team looking to expand on their run they started 2 years ago when they knocked off Ohio State in the opening round. FAU has come out of nowhere this season, currently sitting with a 27-3 record. A team who knows how to play together is dangerous and the chemistry for FAU is undoubtable. With 3 players averaging double digits, and another 2 just below the mark at 9.5 ppg, the Owls spread the ball around and don’t rely on one man. In the tournament, it’s crucial to have multiple scoring options and FAU has that.
The field is wide open this year and the tournament is primed. Now, all that’s left is to watch the madness unfold. In Chinese New Year, it is the Year of the Rabbit. For March Madness, it’s the Year of the DOG.
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